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Here are some reasons why.
I know what you're thinking: "Arnold's worst idea? Is it possible to pin down just one?" Well, I make the case at the Manhattan Institute's City Journal on Wednesday that Governor Schwarzenegger's stubborn insistence on implementing AB 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, deserves that dubious distinction.
Comments
CARBoniferous
I can't really discuss whether this is Arnold's worst idea or not, since I have no idea what he's been doing in office a whole continent away from me. However, I can comment on your article.
It appears that most of your animus regarding AB 32 stems from two places: Basic ideology (you don't like it) and CARB's report.
After having seen Who Killed the Electric Car? I have an enormous problem with taking anything emanating from CARB as a non-political, purely objective document. It's clear they're driven by their own ideology, and one that's hardly congruent with California's stereotypical eco-weenie dome-living hippie thang. In fact they seem as motivated by big business, big profits, and pocket-lining as any lump of bureaucracy in America.
So if CARB says somewhere in their report that AB 32 will kill California's economy, I'm inclined to think it didn't slip out accidentally.
Further -- and I don't think I need to go into great detail on this -- need I point out that, in the event of global warming's destruction of human civilization, California's economy will hardly be a worry. Your argument might work for the "Global Warming is a Myth" choir, but it's not convincing for potential parishioners on the street. If one truly believes that Earth's ecosystem is in trouble -- and I'm not saying I do but if -- dithering because you're worried California's manufacturing sector might shed a few jobs is ridiculous, like straightening pictures on the wall while your house burns down around you.
Re: CARBoniferous
Yes and no. A political and policy matter, I think the state's global warming law is going to be a disaster and it will not achieve the goals that either the Legislature or the governor promise. It's actually more than that; but for the purposes of a 1,200-word opinion piece, I can see how that might be the impression left on some readers. I should mention that the genesis of the article was a much longer paper on regulation in California, which will appear as a chapter in a book that the Claremont Institute is publishing in a couple of months.
Since CARB is the lead agency designated by AB 32 with creating the regulations implementing the law, the agency has conducted all sorts of studies. It had to. It was compelled by law to do so. There have also been a number of independent reports, including a Harvard University study that's a couple of years old now that concluded the benefits promised by the state were "too good to be true."
You're partly right. The nature of regulation is such that the regulators are almost always in bed with the regulated. Industries accept regulations for a variety of reasons, usually because they can pass costs onto consumers or can limit competition. In the case of AB 32, certain industries have reason to favor more regulation rather than less. Certain energy companies, for example, are keenly interested in the tax breaks and subsidies that the state is dangling to spur development of renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar and geothermal. The state needs to do this because none of those technologies are economically viable or efficient without subsidies.
They hedged their language, certainly, in the early draft. And most traces of gloom and doom has been purged from the latest draft, which came out last month. Even so, as I made clear in the piece (I think), CARB doesn't think killing the economy is such a big deal, either. They think that they can collect $143 billion in carbon credits over eight years from the industries that stick around to pay, and then redistribute the money to the people who get thrown out of work as a result.
To the extent I've commented at all about global warming or climate change or whatever we're calling it next week, I've avoided the science and focused on the policy prescriptions. The point is, the policies that California proposes wouldn't make a lick of difference in altering whatever changes the climate may or may not be undergoing but almost certainly would diminish our quality of life no matter what happens. It isn't just a matter of shedding "a few jobs," Chris. It's about the freedom and economic well-being of millions of people in this state, and the power that the state would claim for itself on the basis of the flimsiest of hopes.
1200 Words
I figured some of the trouble was trying to cover a large topic (itself a subtopic of a very large topic) in a small space. But it seems to me you were focusing very narrowly.
I was thinking what you needed to focus on here was not just that AB 32 would wreck California's economy (which seems pretty well and truly fucked without it anyhow) but that it would wreck the economy without improving anything in its stead. Merely saying "This would cause job loss in the manufacturing sector" isn't much of an argument here; you could as easily say that child labor laws cause job loss. The core of the argument is that the job loss is a necessary cost of keeping the planet going. Unless you strike at that core, anything you say is throwing spaghetti at the wall.
The loss of jobs and manufacturing can be seen as an overall good if the jobs lost are dangerous and the manufacturing only efficient with subsidies (in the form of tax breaks, say, or the health and lives of the workers, either one of which I'm personally against). If the industry can't survive without polluting the environment, causing cancer in its employees, and demanding tax incentives, then we're probably better off without it, even if that means a loss of jobs. You and I probably agree on this (approximately).
If, however, the jobs are going to be lost and the environment is still a wreck, with everyone getting cancer and so on, well, obviously something's gone wrong.
I guess what I was getting at was, far from arguing in favor of your position, you were in fact providing ammunition for your opponents. Attacking the weak point is asking, "Will AB 32 actually improve anything?" And I didn't think you addressed that as well as you could have. You do a better job here in this comment.
Although you do note that alternative energy sources are only competitive with subsidies; you don't note many of the subsidies for traditional energy sources. The playing field isn't simply unlevel; at this point it's been dug up and re-piled in so many different ways figuring out what's going on is like a game of Marble Madness.
Re: 1200
Hmmm. You may be right, Chris. I think sometimes there are a lot of unspoken assumptions in these articles, which act to their detriment for some readers. I'm doing a follow-up for City Journal to today's piece, which will delve into renewable energy a bit more -- date of publication TBD, as I've only done a smidgeon of reporting so far. I'll try to address your criticism (even if only indirectly) there.
Unspoken
That's exactly what I was getting at: There are too many unspoken assumptions in your essay for it to stand on its own. That's pretty much what "preaching to the choir" means, right? That you both have this big set of assumptions in common on which to base further agreement.
In this case I'm not sure you can really get into it without a lot of crazy-ass research. But maybe you can shore up and explain briefly some of those unspoken assumptions, at least.
RE: Unspoken
Well, I don't want to give the impression that I'm giving away the store here. I maintain that the law will do major economic harm, and that can't be dismissed. Again, I tried to show how the governor and supporters of are making claims about economic benefits of the law that the evidence doesn't support -- quite apart from whatever good the law may do for the environment.
The other thing the law does is require state utilities to provide a certain amount of power from renewable sources by a certain date. The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, for example, was supposed to generate 20 percent of its residential power from renewable sources by this year. As of October, DWP was at 14 percent.
The problem isn't a shortage or renewables, exactly. DWP has a shiny new geothermal plant out in the desert near the Salton Sea, about 150 miles or so east of L.A. The problem is getting that clean, green power from the desert to the city. For that you need transmission lines. And transmission lines are expensive, require lots of right of way, and everyone hates them. But if you want to "decarbonize," that's the price you pay. Anyway, that's a subject for another piece...
It doesn't matter what we do
(For saying you avoid the science, that sounds an awful lot like a scientific claim ;)
That seems to me to be a pretty defeatist argument. "Doing this/setting this example won't change the big picture (immediately) so we shouldn't do it." Perhaps I'm inferring a little to much from your statement, but I think you are ignoring the capacity that California (or by extension, on other issues, the United States) has for setting the bar higher, and getting others to follow our lead.
I'm not up to date on nuclear proliferation (are we still building nukes?), but I think it would be a poor argument to say the US should continue stockpiling nuclear arms "because other countries are going to do so anyway." It's difficult, to be sure, but we stand a much better shot at convincing India, Israel, Pakistan, Iran, etc. to not go further down the nuclear road if we take the first step ourselves. If we come to the conclusion that nuclear non-proliferation (or policies intended to alleviate climate change) are a good idea, then someone has to go first. If we all wait for the other guy to blink first, no one will.
Agreed But Then Not
I agree with the principle you espouse here, K. The trouble with climate change is this: What's the right thing to do? I agree entirely that once we find the right thing to do, we should do it, regardless of what opposition there might be, regardless of what the other guy might do. You do the right thing because it's right, not for any other reason. And in that light, AB 32 is something that should be enacted and enforced, manufacturing jobs or economy or whatever be damned.
If it's the right thing to do. And now we hit a snag. Determining the right thing.
I have no solid opinion on this because the whole climate change thing is such a mess. Maybe because it's the first Internet controversy, as opposed to Rachel Carson's Silent Spring, which came of age before the Internet. There it was, read this book, read that book, make up your mind. Today it's so much more complex. Who has correct data? What filtering of this data is acceptable? Which statistician do you trust? Lots of scientists are on board on global warming. But lots of scientists are specialists in far-flung disciplines from climatology. Who can one trust?
Then Climategate breaks open. Now there's a trust problem across the board. What now?
Personally I lean towards alternative energy simply because one day the oil will run out. Not today, maybe. Not for a long time. But eventually. And we need to figure out new ways of making all the things we make from petroleum, not just energy. And we should start now. Car exhaust is nasty. Less of it is a good thing. Can't argue with that. Coal makes yucky stuff in the air. Less is better. Can't argue with that.
Bucky Fuller always said we have the capacity to make the world work for everyone, without disadvantaging anyone. The whole planet can live at the standard of living of the West. I believe this to be true, although some things have come up to undermine my faith in this. Still, I believe we can do it.
Is AB 32 the way to do it? I don't know, but we need to find out.
RE Agreed But Then Not
I'm with you there, 100%. And I will admit that the current state of climate science is confused, for lack of a better word. I think you really summed up my feelings on the whole environmental issue nicely. To the extent that I may have drunk the climate change Kool-Aid, I think it was in part because of my exasperation at the apparent lack of foresight by so many people. It seems obvious to me that there are a lot of things that we as humans do to the world that are bad, and I think we are idiots to ignore that blindly in favor of GDP growth and jobs.